Amalie Robert Estate Situational Review: The Mid-July Stretch and Lag Phase

Hello and Welcome, 

  

After June’s month end record heat wave, July seems downright pleasant. High temperatures in the upper 80’s mostly, though trending down to the upper 70’s and nighttime temperatures dipping into the 40’s. Our humidity remains in check at about 40% during the day and 90% overnight. No matter, the vines are executing their preordained program. They are just taking a little more time getting it done. That and they are getting older, just like the rest of us.

 

 

THE BIG PICTURE 

 

As we welcome more visitors to the property, we are reminded that not everyone reading this FLOG has 36 acres of vineyard for a backyard - but we do. So, we thought it might be nice to introduce you to THE BIG PICTURE. If you are planning a trip to Wine Country, you can see it all when you get here. Until then, here is a view of the “back 40”.

 

We are farming the dream, so you don’t have to. Click on the image to view the "Back 40" panorama.

 

 

Winemaking: The Continuation of Terroir by Other Means. ®

 

A FLOG communication (Farming bLOG) by Dena & Ernie from Amalie Robert Estate. Oregon Willamette Valley Pinot Noir and Chardonnay. Have a look and see what we see on Instagram @AmalieRobert Estate. We are posting on Facebook and LinkedIn. Check us out if you can. We can use all the likes we can get…

 

Will you be in our area? Amalie Robert Estate is open all summer by appointment for vineyard tours and tastings. Select your preferred day and time with the Big Red Button.

 

 

Fire Update
 

We will be monitoring the West Coast fire situation as we head into the hot and dry days leading up to harvest. Here is a current image of the Oregon wildfire scene.

 

The largest fire by far in Oregon right now is the Bootleg fire (fire number 210321) located near the border with California. The fire was reported on July 12^th and as of July 19^th has burned over 400,000 acres. For comparative purposes, the state of Rhode Island is 776,900 acres.

 

 

This chart shows how Vintage 2021 compares to the past four vintages of wildfires. The state of Connecticut is 3.548 million acres and that is pretty close to our year-to-date average acres burned. How many Connecticut’s do we have left to burn? How much greenhouse gas and carbon are being released into the atmosphere? Maybe it’s time West Coast forest management became part of the national debate.

 

 

This graphic shows the Air Quality Index for the Northeast region. The smoke causing the unhealthy air quality is from the West Coast wildfires over 2,500 miles away. With all of that particulate in the atmosphere, someone could make the case for global dimm(witt)ing. We may be going to hell in a handbasket, but at least we’re enjoying the ride.

 

 
Lag Phase and Situational Review
 

The month of July appears seemingly out of nowhere after the flurry of activity in June known as canopy management. Unprecedented growth from rain and excessive heat in June had to be contained in 3 sets of trellis catch wires. Then and only then was Ernie able to execute his first hedge. Some blocks, being above average, earned a pre-hedge before the main hedge. Then there is the obligatory re-hedge.

 

Ernie Getting His Hedge on in the Terraced Rows of the Back 40.
 

And the hedging’s will continue until the vines realize it is time to stop growing more leaves and then direct their energy to ripening their seeds. And in so doing develop stunning aroma and flavor in our wine berries. They want to ripen seeds to reproduce; we just want to make the wine! A means to an end to be sure.

 

 

But it takes a while for the vines to grow more leaves for Ernie to hedge off. So, we take a week or so to give them some time to grow and focus on updating our own situational awareness. You should see what it looks like from here…

 

Hedging the Vines, Back to Front.
 

For the vines, they call this period “lag phase”. Lag phase is an important time in the development of this year’s wine berries. But like skeet shooting low house 6, you need to be paying attention or you will miss it. Lag phase helps the humans figure out about how many tons of wine berries will be waiting for them at the start of The Great Cluster Pluck. This is good to know IN ADVANCE.

 

You know the vines have entered lag phase when the seeds begin to “harden off”. After bloom when the wine berries are first formed, the cells are dividing like rabbits and the tissue is very soft. After the cell division is complete, the next step is enhancing cell wall integrity and growing the cells – including the seeds.

 

At the very center of a pollinated wine berry is a seed. More specifically in wine berries there are pairs of seeds – usually two pairs, but sometimes only one. This is often the result of the weather conditions during bloom. Warm sunny weather favors two pairs of seeds, where cool and rainy weather can create a single pair. The other alternative is no seeds because the flower did not pollinate, and you have no wine berry to ferment the sugar out of.

 

This year, we seem to have a mix of all three scenarios. More of a casual observation at this point as the vines are taking their time entering lag phase. We have not sampled the vineyard and performed the 4 sig-fig analysis and statistical evaluations – yet. But like Yogi Barra said, “You can observe a lot just by watching.”

 

We have clusters with fewer than the historical “average” number of wine berries. This means a greater percentage of flowers did not pollinate this year compared to the average over the past 30 years. For the flowers that did pollinate, we see a wide range in the mix of the two pairs of seeds v the one pair of seeds wine berries.

 

Pinot Noir Cluster, Berry with 2 Pairs of Seeds, Berry with 1 Pair of Seeds.
 

Once the seeds begin to harden off, the vines have by definition entered lag phase. Then it is time to sample the vineyard. We do this by selecting a random set of vines, we count the number of clusters on the vine and write that number down. Then we clip one off and put it in a bucket. Move on to the next random vine and repeat.

 

When the sample collection is done, we weigh the clusters and divide by the number of clusters weighed. This is the fun part – getting weighed. The average weight of the clusters at lag phase will double when we cluster pluck them. So if we have a cluster that weighs 55 grams at lag phase, it should weigh 110 grams at harvest. That would mean an average size Pinot Noir cluster where it takes 4 of them to make a pound.

 

Luck favors the prepared mind. Based on our informal observation, we will be lucky to see our FINAL cluster weights in the 100 gram category. More likely it seems that it may take five or even six clusters to make a pound. The marketing people will tell you that it is a short crop of exceptional quality. And of course, it will be…

 

 
What does this mean and why should I care?
 

Growing two vintages on the same cluster. From a winemaking perspective, wine berries with a single pair of seeds are significantly smaller and will build sugar faster than wine berries with two pairs of seeds. This comes into play when sampling for harvest.

 

There are at least three conditions for harvest that must all signal “GO TIME!” The first and foremost is aroma and flavor. If it doesn’t taste good on the vine, the chance of an ethereal Pinot Noir in the bottle is pretty remote.

 

Clusters Protected from the Sun to Preserve Aroma and Flavor.
 

The second attribute is the chemistry, specifically sugar concentration and acidity measured as pH. Optimal sugar concentrations at harvest are measured using Brix. A range of 21 to 24 Brix will yield a final alcohol potential of 12.6 to 14.4% alcohol. Here is where the single seed pair berries come into focus.

 

If the mix of wine berries on a cluster have a high percentage of single seed wine berries, the sugar concentration will read very high. However, the wine berries with two pairs of seeds are not as mature and they will show a very high concentration of acid, and underripe flavors. This is good to know, but fortunately it is not something we need to problematize today.

 

And the third attribute is scheduling a harvest crew. It is important to remember, there are only so many skilled labor hands to go around. And those skilled labor hands are connected to lungs that will need clean, smoke free air to breath. Just like every other living thing on the planet.

 
Kindest Regards,

Dena & Ernie

Amalie Robert Estate: Vintage 2020 BOLO & Memorial Day Weekend Open House

Hello and Welcome,

May has been quite a busy month for the Pinot Noir vines at Amalie Robert Estate. They know there is only about 4 months to go before The Great Cluster Pluck. Yep, they are sitting pretty just waving in the breeze! Enjoy it while it lasts, because the first set of trellis catch wires is coming for you.
 

Winemaking: The Continuation of Terroir by Other Means.® A Farming bLOG (FLOG) communication from Dena & Ernie. Estate grown Amalie Robert Pinot Noir and Chardonnay from the Willamette Valley. Have a look and see what we see on Instagram @AmalieRobert Estate. We are posting on Facebook and LinkedIn. Check us out if you can. We can use all the likes we can get…

 

 

Open House Weekend!

 

The winery will be open for outdoor tastings and guided vineyard tours this Memorial Day weekend, Friday through Monday, 10 am to 3 pm by appointment. If you can make it, please click on the BIG RED BUTTON to be among the very first to access our NEW tasting appointment page!

 
If you are going to be somewhere other than here, we have for you the BIG BLUE BUTTON! With a click of this button, you will be transported to a matrix of wines to select from without leaving the comfort of your digital appliance. All purchases above $300 include domestic ground shipping (your PROMO CODE is preloaded). And the NATIONWIDE spring shipping window is WFO (Wide Farming Open)!
  



Vintage 2020 Preview.
 
It is about that time of year when you get to taste the latest vintage Oregon White and Rosé wines. You won’t be seeing any from Amalie Robert, as we chose NOT to release any wine due to smoke taint. However, we can give you a few discussion points as you taste and talk your way through the valley.


Heavy Smoke in the Willamette Valley Vintage 2020
 
When: The most important question you can ask is when was the harvest date. The smoke entered our part of the Willamette Valley around Tuesday, September 8^th right after Labor Day. If the grapes were harvested prior to that, there is little cause for concern. UNLESS the wines were blended with grapes harvested after the smoke entered the valley.
 
Where: Location made a significant difference in smoke exposure. The big fire that created the most smoke for us was from the Beachie Creek and Lionshead fires. They were due east of Salem, and our vineyard, by about 60 miles. High winds helped the fires grow quickly and rapidly filled the valley with smoke. There were also large fires generating smoke south of Salem. We think the least affected areas early on were located at the north end of the valley, but eventually we all had some exposure.
 
How Much: Most wineries did micro ferments (using 5 gallon buckets) and sent the resulting wine out for analysis. While this was a good idea, the main lab we rely on, ETS located in St. Helena, was backed up. They were overloaded with samples, and closed due to fire danger for a few days, so getting results back before harvest was typically not possible. When we called, they suggested sending wine samples to Australia for testing, as they had experience with smoke taint and the turnaround time would be faster.
 
Exposure: When the grape skin is exposed to smoke, the particles cross the cell membrane and bind with sugar molecules (Glucose and Fructose). When tasting fresh grapes, they don’t taste smoky as the smoke compounds are bound to the sugars. After fermentation is complete, the smoke compounds are unbound from the fermented sugar molecules and can then be detected. The question is how much and at what point in the wines’ maturity will those aromas, flavors and textures be present. Sometimes right away, sometimes after a while and sometimes never.
 
Smoking Gun: The indicator compound is called Guaiacol. If the winery has tested the FINISHED wine for Guaiacol AFTER fermenting, but BEFORE going into toasted oak barrels, that would be good to know. Toasted oak barrels can also impart Guaiacol into the wine. And get this, you cannot test Syrah for smoke taint using Guaiacol as the marker, because Guaiacol is a naturally occurring compound in Syrah. Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em!
 
Our test after fermentation came back at over 8.0 parts per billion (ppb) and that is why we have no vintage 2020 wine to offer. Anything over 4.0 ppb is circumspect. Here is a resource from ETS covering the topic.
 

 
The Final Analysis: There were some fantastic wines made from vintage 2020. They are out there waiting to be discovered. And hopefully, vintage 2021 will be free of any environmental encumbrances and we can all get back to the task at hand.
 
 
Amalie Robert Estate Vintage 2020 Statement.
 

We have chosen to involuntarily withdraw from vintage 2020. We live on our vineyard and winery property and bore firsthand witness to the smoke event that spanned September 7th though the 16th. The intensity, duration and physical impact on our vines is undeniable.

 

Our underlying philosophy is to express the purity of our site through the unique characteristics of the vintage. We ferment with whole clusters, indigenous yeast and barrel age our wines for 18-24 months. We bottle without the addition of fining agents such as egg whites and we do not filter or otherwise manipulate our wines before bottling. We are 100% estate grown.

 

These traditional wine making fundamentals have stood the test of time well before we founded Amalie Robert Estate. They have also served us well for the past 20 years. When we release a bottle of wine you can depend upon our stewardship of the land from vine to bottle and commitment to excellence.

 

To make smoke taint free wine in vintage 2020 by following our guiding principles was simply not possible. We knew there was no pathway to release a premium quality wine under our name.

 

These are our choices, and they are the right choices for us. We have high hopes that these fires and the devastation they have caused will provide a strong impetus to better manage our natural resources, including the life sustaining air that all earthbound plants and animals require.

 

 

Additional Resources.

You can read our real-time, on-site updates written from the vineyard here.


2020 Vintage Update: Earth, Wind, Fire & Smoke


Special Update: Oregon Wildfires and Potential Harvest Impacts


Special Update: Oregon Wildfires II and Wine Implications
 

Amalie Robert Estate Harvest After Action Report: Vintage 2020 Creates a Vacuum & Our Vintage Statement

Kindest Regards,

Dena & Ernie

Amalie Robert Estate Harvest After Action Report: Vintage 2020 Creates a Vacuum & Our Vintage Statement

Hello and Welcome, 
  
This is the Amalie Robert Estate Harvest After Action Report: Vintage 2020 Creates a Vacuum and Our Vintage Statement. A FLOG communication (Farming bLOG) from Dena & Ernie @AmalieRobert. Oregon Willamette Valley Pinot Noir. 
 

 
There will certainly be less top tier, premium wine produced in fire and smoke affected areas of the West Coast winegrowing regions this year. This will impact several sectors of the wine trade from vineyard owners and harvest workers, wineries and their suppliers including barrel coopers and glass vendors, all wine distribution channels, Federal and State excise taxes, and of course the people that ultimately enable the entire wine industry - the wine consumer. Something for everyone really (except the fruit flies), misery loves company. Quite a vacuum indeed, or you could say it sucks.
 

Every vintage is a battlefield from the agrarian point of view. The off season starts when harvest is finished. This time is dedicated to renewing the vineyard floor with winter cover crops and vine pruning to greet the new vintage come spring. Meanwhile, below ground are the pocket gophers and voles trying to eat the roots off our vines and girdle their trunks. And of course, the weeds grow all winter long slowly sapping whatever nutrients they can get from the vines’ root zone. In addition to lifting the morning fog, that is how winegrowers start the vintage.
 

Farm equipment is and has always been the product of necessity and invention. This conjures up images of baling wire and duct tape, along with this phrase, “If it looks stupid, but it works, it’s not stupid.” Whatever it takes to get ‘er done then get back to the barn and fix it up for the next day. The off season sees a fair bit of repairs and maintenance from the astute winegrower to prevent downtime during the growing season when there simply is “no extra time.” The concept is akin to “no extra money” which becomes relevant when the tractor repair bill shows up.
 

Ah, but sometime in April spring springs and the vines wake up. Then it is a race to put up catch wires to control the explosive growth of leaves and shoots that the vines will need to ripen their seeds and reproduce. Yes, it is all about them. Spring into summer is the time the vines need a helping hand getting all of this done. Vineyard laborers spend about 3 to 4 minutes per vine over the course of 3 visits spanning about 5 weeks. Yes, Pinot Noir vines are high maintenance.
 

 

June brings us flowering. This is the first real sign that the vintage is in play. Depending on the weather, the flowers will pollinate and turn into wine berries. The warmer and dryer the weather, all things being equal, the better chance the flowers will become wine berries. And wine berries are self-pollinating. They do not need bees or other insects to complete their task. They just need a few days of mildly warm weather, a little breeze and be left alone to do their thing. Kind of like they are taking a vacation in the middle of the growing season. And they get an extra day every 4 years to do it.
 

Mildew. Reminds us of Newman from Seinfeld. Even sounds the same – Mildew meet Newman. Here is the first clue that Mother Nature is having you on. Mildew affects grape vine tissues including the shoots, leaves and wee little wine berries. When the temperature and humidity are just right gazillions of little spores are released into the atmosphere from last year’s mildew colonies. This opening salvo starts around May and continues through August.
 
These spores land on the vines’ shoots, leaves and wine berries and do their level best to establish new colonies. Why do they do this? So they can reproduce and make even more spores. An active mildew infection is not a trivial event. It arrests the wine berry development preventing it from developing aroma and flavor. Left unchecked, mildew will render your wineberries null and void when it comes to the winemaking process. A mildew infection has a tendency to focus the mind.
 

Then along comes August, a turning point in the vintage when the wineberries start to change color from green to mauve to purple, or as we like to call it Pinot Noir en Flagrante. Assuming this is not Botrytis and you have fought back the aforementioned (and uncovered) perils, the birds begin to arrive bringing with them all of their friends and relations. We have bioacoustic controls to deter these winged pests by attracting raptors into OUR environment to interact with THEIR environment. It is a lovely thing to see when these two worlds collide. For the more exposed parts of the vineyard, we go old school and deploy nets.
 

Then we enter September, the wait and worry phase of the winegrowing program. The wine berries have not yet developed the aroma, flavor and texture necessary to be cluster plucked. So, we have to wait for that and worry we will not be affected by some plague or pestilence before we can cluster pluck our bounty. This worry is usually concentrated around Mother Nature’s precipitation schedule, which she refuses to confirm until the night before - usually. If you want a harvest crew, they need confirmation 48 hours in advance - always.
 
 
Life is a Beachie Creek fire. And that was our “AH HA” moment when we knew all was for naught. In the finance world, it is known as a sunk cost. That investment of time, money and intellectual capital is gone. Experience is what you get, when you don’t get what you want.
 
In gambling, which is like farming, you can go “double or nothing.” In farming, you pivot from The Great Cluster Pluck to winter pruning. But since the vines still have all of their leaves (and most of their fruit) you have to wait for it.

The concept in play for vintage 2020 is nonconforming goods. In a manufacturing environment, you order parts or pre-made assemblies from your suppliers. Upon delivery, the parts are inspected to verify they comply with the purchase order specifications. If they do, they are accepted into the production process flow. If they do not, they are rejected as nonconforming goods.
 
Most folks have ordered something online over the past few months – maybe even wine. From time to time, there is a mispick in the warehouse. You ordered red towels to go with your kitchen décor, but when you opened the box, you discovered they sent blue ones. Your options are to remodel your kitchen to accommodate the blue towels or reject them and reorder the red ones.
 
This applies to several industries including the beleaguered restaurants coping with COVID-19. In the farm to table world (which we whole heartedly support), if the tomatoes are underripe at the farmers’ market, then the BLTs are going to have cucumbers or avocados that day, not tomatoes.
 

Yes, we did make wine. And yes, it smells fine, mostly. Does it have smoke taint? Certainly. Much like the other affliction that is a worldwide phenomenon, you could have it and be asymptomatic. Then one day, you have all of the symptoms. Smoke taint can be masked in a young wine, only to express itself as the wine matures in barrel or bottle. You can treat smoke tainted wine before bottling, there are companies that do that. Then maybe a dilution approach is the answer by blending the affected wine into exceptionally large lots of a “red blend.” A ubiquitous category, at best.
 
A product recall is the logistical equivalent to the software “edit undo” function and can significantly impact a brand’s reputation. Two examples come to mind on how to execute a product recall. The first is from the hi-tech world when Intel discovered a flaw in their Pentium chip and handled it poorly. The second is when the makers of Tylenol discovered someone had tampered with their product in a retail environment and handled it exceptionally well.
 
In vintage 2020 a recalled wine means someone knew, or should have known, of a tainted product and went forward with a release. The Ford Pinto is a case in point of what NOT to do when in doubt. They chose very poorly and achieved a catastrophic result.
 
And yes, we considered other options to convert wine berries into alcohol. Mostly at increased costs with little to no expectation of finding a market for whatever alcohol-based product you have produced. But is it wine? By definition it could be. Or it could be distilled into a smoky brandy. Highly unlikely to give Lagavulin a run for its money. Scotch is a peaty smoky experience - on purpose. We concluded that perhaps this vintage is destined for its last best social purpose as hand sanitizer.
 

Cuvée de Bovine. But maybe the step just before the last best social purpose of a fermented alcohol product is food. We found a rancher who was interested in a little Pinot Noir for his herd. Well, why not? Maybe someday a nice dish of beef bourguignon will find its way onto our dinner table.

Click on the Cows to watch Beef Bourguignon on the Hoof.

 

 

 

 

Amalie Robert Estate Vintage 2020 Statement.

 

We have chosen to involuntarily withdraw from vintage 2020. We live on our vineyard property and bore firsthand witness to the smoke event that spanned September 7^th though the 16^th. The intensity, duration and physical impact on our vines is undeniable.

 

Our underlying philosophy is to express the purity of our site through the unique characteristics of the vintage. We ferment with whole clusters, indigenous yeast and barrel age our wines for 18-24 months. We bottle without the addition of fining agents such as egg whites and we do not filter or otherwise manipulate our wines before bottling. We are 100% estate grown.

 

These traditional wine making fundamentals have stood the test of time well before we founded Amalie Robert Estate. They have also served us well for the past 20 years. When we release a bottle of wine you can depend upon our stewardship of the land from vine to bottle and commitment to excellence.

 

To make smoke taint free wine in vintage 2020 by following our guiding principles was simply not possible. We knew there was no pathway to release a premium quality wine under our name.

 

These are our choices, and they are the right choices for us. We have high hopes that these fires and the devastation they have caused will provide a strong impetus to better manage our natural resources, including the life sustaining air that all earthbound plants and animals require.

Kindest Regards,

Dena & Ernie

 

You can read our real time wildfire updates posted to our FLOG (Farming bLOG) here:

September 11, 2020: Special Update: Oregon Wildfires and Potential Harvest Impacts

September 22, 2020: Special Update: Oregon Wildfires II and Wine Implications

October 20, 2020: Amalie RobertEstate Official Statement on Vintage 2020

Playing Poker with Mother Nature

Hello and Welcome, 

This is an Amalie Robert Estate A-List Release Weekend! A Farming bLOG FLOG communication from Dena & Ernie @AmalieRobert Estate! Oregon Willamette Valley Pinot Noir. 

It’s that special time of year when the Great Pumpkin rises out of the most sincere pumpkin patch and flies through the air… Ok, wait that’s not the right agricultural endeavor.
 

 
We are talking about wine berries and the Great Cluster Pluck! It’s that time of year for harvest, but what exactly are we harvesting? Are these wine berries the sublime and ethereal beginnings of sublime and ethereal wines? Or is the smoke exposure event from mid-September going to reappear at the moment of truth in the glass? No one really knows for sure how this is going to play out. Having the most sincere patch of vines, while a very worthy goal, is not going to help this year…
 
The wildfire smoke that permeated the Willamette Valley this September has most assuredly permeated the wine berry skins. Once that happens the smoke molecules are tightly bound to sugar molecules inside the wine berry. During fermentation the sugar molecules are vanquished, and alcohol is produced.
 
If there were smoke molecules inside the wine berries, they are now most assuredly in the finished wine. If these molecules are volatile, then you can smell and taste them. If they are not volatile you cannot smell and taste them. The only way to know for sure if your wine has these molecules is to send a sample of a fermented wine to a lab to test for certain compounds associated with smoke taint. Here is an image of the ETS Laboratories website at of September 28, 2020.
 

 
The good news is that ETS labs, the “go to” wine lab we rely upon, can test for these compounds. The bad news is that our results would likely come back in November. The harvest window for Pinot Noir will be long closed by then.
 
“We are currently reporting from grape berry smoke impact samples received 28 August, and from wine samples received 3 September. Grape berry samples received early today are projected to be reportable in mid November, and wine samples received early today are projected to be reportable by 7 November…” ETS website September 28, 2020.
 
This means we can know if our wines have the markers for smoke taint, but due to the backlog of everyone else wanting to know the same thing, we cannot know before harvest. And here is the thing, the sample results offer three possibilities. Right away that is a problem because the “industry standard” 2-bit coin only has 2 sides.
 
First, there could be no markers of smoke taint. Yippee, we are clean! The next thought is that you should have cluster plucked the entire field, not just the very best blocks.
 
Second, your results could come back with low levels of smoke taint markers. Then you have to decide how low is low enough. These smoke taint compounds are most likely bound up in the aroma, flavor and texture matrix (components) of the wine and may not be detectable at this moment.
 
But as the wine ages, those compounds could become volatile and rat you out. Hard to say at this point. There are ways of removing some of these smoke taint aromas, flavors and textures, but it means doing things. Doing things that we are not willing to do in a wine with our names on it.
 
The other easy answer is if the smoke taint markers are way off the charts. Then you know you are doomed and can go out for tricks and treats with Charlie Brown while Linus sits in the Pumpkin Patch with Sally – Oh joy!
 
For all of you poker players out there, here is how it breaks down for an Estate winery with their own vineyard. We will use the analogy of 7 card stud poker. Note: If you do not know how to play poker, do NOT agree to accept a free lesson form your friends OR your parents. Free is a relative term…
 
The game starts off with each player contributing a certain sum to the communal money pot that they all hope to collect at the end of the game. This is called the ante. In winery parlance this is the cost of your land, vines and winery. Once everyone ante’s up, the dealer deals three cards to each player. Two face up for all to see, one face down so only the player can see it.
 

 
The person with the worst showing hand is then required to place a bet that allows everyone to see the next card. Everyone around the table contributes an equal amount. Once everyone “ante’s up”, they get to see the fourth card.
 
Once the fourth card is dealt face up, people begin to assess the possibility of having the best hand at the table and winning the pot. They look at their cards and the face up cards around the table. Once again the person with the worst cards showing determines how much they are willing to pay to see the next card.
 
At this point a player can fold their cards and forfeit the money they have bet so far. This allows them to stop paying for more cards when they believe they have a losing hand and thus preserving their capital for the next hand. You win some, you lose some kid.
 
In the wine business, the fourth card is the cost of harvest. Folding this early means you most likely have smoke taint and the cost of harvesting is not warranted. You will skip the vintage.
 

 
Whoever is still in the game contributes the ante and gets to see the fifth card, this one also comes face up for all to see. One again the worst showing hand makes a determination on the likelihood of wining the hand and determines the amount of money they are willing to pay to see the next card.
 
In the wine business, the fifth card is processing all of the grapes into wine without knowing if the wine will be tainted. Maybe still waiting on the lab.
 

 
Once again, to see the sixth card everyone places a bet or folds their cards. At this point everyone has 6 of the 7 cards they will be dealt. Back in the old days, side arms were at the ready, and Cuervo had been flowing freely.
 
In the wine business, the sixth card represents the cost of putting the wine in barrel and aging it for 12 to 20+ months. Still not knowing it the final wine will be free of taint.
 

 
Once the last bets are down, the dealer surrenders the seventh card. Most players are stone faced, not revealing a single emotion or “tell.”
 
In the wine business, the seventh card represents the cost of blending and bottling the wine. To pay for this step, one would be fairly certain the wine is taint free. Cuervo and side arms may be replaced with Scotch and legal counsel.
 

 
A final round of betting ensues. Sometimes people holding very poor hands will bluff, hoping to scare others into folding before committing anymore money to the pot. Eventually, two players remain and the highest hand wins the pot. Collecting the winnings and leaving the establishment unscathed is a separate matter. It is important to know when to walk away, and know when to run.
 
In the wine business, this last round of betting is focused on knowing if the taint is fully remediated, or not there at all. Or betting that it was of such a low level it may not come back after aging in the bottle. Maybe not even when poured into a glass and tasted after a year or more.
 
But much like in the old Wild West, the wine business has another wildcard. That is the card you pay for if you have to do a product recall because the taint was there the entire time, but no one could discover it – the false negative prognosis. And of course, the associated destruction cost and payment of excise taxes.
 
Kindest Regards,
 
Dena & Ernie

Special Update: Oregon Wildfires II and Wine Implications

Hello and Welcome, 

Welcome to the first day of fall, September 22, vintage 2020. This is a Special Update: Oregon Wildfires II and Wine Implications. A Farming bLOG FLOG communication from Dena & Ernie @AmalieRobert Estate. Oregon Willamette Valley Pinot Noir.

The Sun overlooking Clone 95, Amalie Robert Estate September 16

Life is a Beachie Creek fire. As most of the continental United States is aware, the West Coast was set ablaze in spectacular fashion on Monday evening, September 7^th. Fanning those Beachie Creek flames and ushering in all of that smoke to the region was a wind event that is predicted to happen 2 or maybe 3 times a CENTURY.
 
We recognize that other parts of the country were and are still dealing with severe fire, smoke, winds, rains, and the fallout from those natural disasters. However, much like the Earth is the only planet that grows wine, the West Coast is a significant contributor to domestic wine production. Vintage 2020, the real VINTAGE of the CENTURY, hangs in the balance.
 
The following smoke maps will give you an idea of how much smoke was produced and the vast expanse that density of smoke covered.

This image is from Saturday, September 12^th. Most of the smoke is still confined to the West Coast and is blowing out over the Pacific Ocean.
 

 
This image is from Monday, September 14^th. The Jet Stream is starting to distribute the smoke north and east from the West Coast, but no meaningful airflow to the region.
 

 
This is the 97338 zip code (Dallas, OR) Air Quality Index for Monday, September 14^th.
 

 
This image is from Wednesday, September 16^th. The Jet Stream is starting to distribute the smoke farther afield to the eastern seaboard. Eventually, the entire United States and parts of Canada were able to enjoy some colorful sunscapes due to these fires. The winds are beginning to come from the southwest bringing Northern California smoke into the region and up through into Canada.
 

 
Finally, the winds shifted and brought northwest winds and rain from the Gulf of Alaska into the region beginning September 17^th complete with thunder and lightning. Mother Nature certainly put on a show, and with great effect. We received 0.97 inches of rain over those two days. Even though the rain has given the wine berries quite a bath to wash off the ash residue, they have been exposed to a significant amount of smoke from the Beachie Creek Fire.
 
But since then, it has been really nice. We have rejoined a beautiful Willamette Valley wine country fall already in progress. But the damage is done, or is it?
 
WARNING: A little chemistry ahead.
Definition: Volatile = able to detect sensory characteristics.
Definition Nonvolatile = Unable to detect sensory characteristics.

Situational Analysis - What we know. At this point we know we have had the better part of 10 days of smoke EXPOSURE. We know that smoke molecules have most certainly penetrated the skins of the wine berries. We know that once the smoke molecules cross the cell membrane into the juice, they will bind with sugar molecules forming nonvolatile glycosides.
 
Nonvolatile glycosides do not give off any smoke taint aromas, flavors, or textures, hence the modifier nonvolatile. During fermentation and aging, these nonvolatile glycosides may break down and become volatile glycosides. That means they release volatile compounds that are detectable in aroma, flavor and texture.
 
There is more to the story. The nonvolatile glycosides can hold off for quite a while. They may not be broken down until they come in contact with enzymes in saliva. Even though the wine may not have any smoky aroma, it may very well have a tainted flavor and/or texture that is discernable on the palate.
 
That’s all the chemistry we need.
 
Situational Analysis – What we do NOT know. We do not know if our smoke exposed wine berries are smoke TAINTED. Micro-ferments, the false negative and the “GO or NO GO” decision. Syrah is different.
 
Micro-ferments are fermentations on a very small scale – such as in a 5 gallon bucket. These are not difficult to do, and in past vintages Ernie has micro-fermented small lots of Syrah Rosé and Gewürztraminer. To give you some scale, a typical Amalie Robert fermenter holds 3,000 pounds of wine berries, a micro-fermentation (bucket) may hold 20 pounds.
 

Gewürztraminer micro-fermentation

Once a fermentation has completed converting sugar to alcohol, it is time to get 6 to 10 people together to taste the wine. This is the easy part. Everyone wants to taste wine, even experimental wine. As researchers have stated, 25% of the population will not be able to discern smoke taint, so factor that into the result.
 
The false negative. As the wine is poured, swirled, evaluated, and spit out, smoke taint will be detected (positive), or it will not be detected (negative). If not detected, it could be that the 25% of the group that cannot discern smoke taint is actually 100% of the group. Not likely, but not impossible.
 
Also, if not detected it could be that the glycosides identified above are still in the nonvolatile condition – they do not impart any tainted qualities. Or lastly, there are no glycosides present in the finished wine. So far, we are 3 for 3 in the negative column. But just because we cannot detect them, does not mean they are not there. This is the False Negative Scenario.
 
However, what we cannot test for is the aging effect in tanks or barrels and the eventual bottle maturation (time in bottle) that will occur after bottling. Over this maturation period the nonvolatile status may shift to volatile at any time. Then the moment of truth is revealed when the wine is poured into a glass and consumed months or years down the road. What are the chances of that? Maybe 5%, maybe 50%? If it happens to you, it happens 100%.
 
The Syrah wine berries are different. They naturally contain these precursors to taint. So even though they may be tainted, that may simply add to their charm, or may not. Think Botox treatments – a little is OK, but don’t overdo it.
 
Vintage 2020 and The Great Cluster Pluck. The “GO or NO GO” decision. The ultimate answer is to have a professional lab determine if glycosides exist in your wine berries or micro-fermentations. A quick call to the ETS laboratory, which is the winery “go to” lab, revealed they are expecting results in late October from samples they received in August. Right, they are some very busy people with a lot riding on their analysis. The harvest window will be closed by the time we know if we are tainted. We might have better luck taking the “no-win scenario” Kobayashi Maru exercise and then drinking the micro-fermentations.
 
So, we are polishing up the quarter that Ernie saved from taking the CPA exam. So far it is 756 heads we GO and 821 tails we NO GO. We will see who gets to 1,000 first.
 
Before we go, let us add our voice to the national conversation. Are the climate conditions that have spawned these horrific natural disasters including the devastating wildfire and smoke that we have been experiencing over the past few years the new normal? Is this situation our destiny?
 
We are the species that has most evolved. Are we unable to adapt and manage our natural resources in a way that benefits all species on this planet as well as our natural resources and our environment?
 

Sadly, they were unable to adapt to their ever-changing environment.

Kindest Regards,
 
Dena & Ernie